What Are Experts Saying about Home Prices?
Dan May • July 15, 2020
What Are Experts Saying about Home Prices?
Last week, a very well-respected real estate analytics firm surprised many with their home price projection for the next twelve months. CoreLogic, in their latest Home Price Index
said:
“The economic downturn that started in March 2020 is predicted to cause a 6.6% drop in the HPI by May 2021, which would be the first decrease in annual home prices in over 9 years.”
The forecast was surprising as it was strikingly different than any other projection by major analysts. Six of the other eight forecasts call for appreciation, and the two who project depreciation indicate it will be one percent or less.
Here is a graph showing all of the projections:
There’s a simple formula to determine the future price of any item: calculate the supply of that item in ratio to the demand for that item. In housing right now, demand far exceeds supply. Last week mortgage applications to buy a home were 33% higher than they were at the same time last year. The available inventory of homes for sale is 31% lower than it was last year. Normally, these numbers should call for homes to continue to appreciate.
Bottom Line
Because of the uncertainty with the pandemic, any economic prediction is extremely difficult. However, looking at the limited supply of homes for sale and the tremendous demand for housing, it is difficult to disagree with the majority of analysts who are calling for price appreciation.
Westside Sellers: Why Early Planning Matters More Than Early Listing For homeowners considering a sale this year, February is less about listing immediately—and more about strategic positioning . Sellers who start planning early often benefit from a clear pricing and marketing road map—learn more about our Seller services on the Westside . On the Westside of Los Angeles, homes that perform best in spring are rarely last-minute decisions. They’re the result of thoughtful planning that begins weeks—or even months—earlier.
What Beverlywood Home Sales Show Over Time Each January, I step back and look at what actually happened in our local real estate market — not forecasts or headlines, but real, closed sales. Over more than a decade of reviewing this data, one pattern has stood out: the number of homes sold each year remains relatively consistent, while prices steadily rise. This January snapshot looks first at Beverlywood as a whole, then drills down into three key sub-markets where I have long-standing experience and market share: Beverlywood HOA, Castle Heights, and Reynier Village. All data referenced in the final version of this report are based on single-family home sales reported in the Combined LA/Westside MLS, using consistent boundaries year over year.
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