The Reason Mortgage Rates Are Projected to Increase and What It Means for You

Dan May • February 25, 2021

The Reason Mortgage Rates Are Projected to Increase and What It Means for You

A man and a woman are standing next to each other in a living room.

We’re currently experiencing historically low mortgage rates. Over the last fifty years, the average on a Freddie Mac 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has been 7.76%. Today, that rate is 2.81%. Flocks of homebuyers have been taking advantage of these remarkably low rates over the last twelve months. However, there’s no guarantee rates will remain this low much longer.

Whenever we try to forecast mortgage rates, we should consider the advice of Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American:


“You know, the fallacy of economic forecasting is don't ever try and forecast interest rates and/or, more specifically, if you're a real estate economist mortgage rates, because you will always invariably be wrong.”

Many things impact mortgage rates. The economy, inflation, and Fed policy, just to name a few. That makes forecasting rates difficult. However, there’s one metric that has held up over the last fifty years – the relationship between mortgage rates and the 10-year treasury rate. Here’s a graph detailing this relationship since Freddie Mac started

For almost 50 years the 30 year mortgage rate has moved in unison with the 10 year treasury rate

keeping mortgage rate records in 1972:There’s no denying the close relationship between the two. Over the last five decades, there’s been an average 1.7-point spread between these two rates. It’s this long-term relationship that has some forecasters projecting an increase in mortgage rates as we move throughout the year. This is based on the recent surge in the 10-year treasury rate shown here:

A graph showing the 10 year treasury rate moving upward

The spread between the two is now 1.53, indicating mortgage rates could rise. Actually, a bump-up in rate has already begun. As Joel Kan, Associate VP of Economic Forecasting for the Mortgage Bankers Association, reveals:


“Expectations of faster economic growth and inflation continue to push Treasury yields & mortgage rates higher. Since hitting a survey low in December, the 30-year fixed rate has slowly risen, & last week climbed to its highest level since Nov 2020.”

How high might they go in 2021?


No one knows for sure. Sam Khater, Chief Economist for Freddie Mac, recently suggested:


“While there are multiple temporary factors driving up rates, the underlying economic fundamentals point to rates remaining in the low 3% range for the year.”

What does this mean for you?


Whether you’re a first-time buyer or you’ve purchased a home before, even an increase of half a point in mortgage rate (2.81 to 3.31%) makes a big difference. On a $300,000 mortgage, that difference (including principal and interest) is $82 a month, $984 a year, or a total of $29,520 over the life of the home loan.


Bottom Line


Based on the 50-year symbiotic relationship between treasury rates and mortgage rates, it appears mortgage rates could be headed up this year. It may make sense to buy now rather than wait.



By Dan May December 12, 2025
Whether you’re a long-time Angeleno or planning your next move, the Westside continues to stand out as one of the most desirable regions in Los Angeles. Anchored by Beverlywood, Castle Heights, Cheviot Hills, and nearby pockets, this area offers a rare combination of convenience, community, and long-term value that today’s buyers are actively seeking. Here’s a closer look at why so many people are rediscovering these neighborhoods. ________________________________________ The Rise of “15-Minute LA” Living More than ever, homeowners want to spend less time in the car and more time actually enjoying where they live. That’s why the idea of a “15-minute neighborhood” has become so attractive — places where daily essentials are just a short drive or walk away. Westside neighborhoods like Beverlywood, Castle Heights, and Cheviot Hills deliver precisely that. What makes these areas so practical for everyday life: Fast access to major corridors like the 10 and 405 freeways, Robertson, Pico, and Venice Blvd. Proximity to job hubs in Culver City’s growing tech and media district, Century City, and West LA. Walkability to essentials, including cafés, markets, parks, and small businesses. Access to well-regarded schools, which remains a key driver for long-term demand and stability. What used to feel like quiet, tucked-away residential pockets now function as some of the most strategically located neighborhoods in the city. ________________________________________ Local Spots That Give the Westside Its Character The Westside isn’t just about convenience — it’s about the lifestyle that comes with it. Residents love the everyday places that help each neighborhood feel like a community, not just a collection of streets. A few favorites that locals talk about: Blueys Market & Café (Pico) – Known for its Australian-style breakfast, fresh pastries, and a relaxed, neighborhood vibe. Palm Grove Social (Carthay Square) – A community café that doubles as a workspace and social hub for remote professionals. Cheviot Hills Recreation Center – Tennis courts, ball fields, walking paths, and open green space make it a go-to spot for families and active lifestyles. Platform LA & Helms Bakery District (Culver City) – Design-forward shops, showrooms, and destination dining that bring a modern edge to the historic Westside. These aren’t just “nice extras” — they’re part of what keeps these communities in demand, even as other parts of the city fluctuate. ________________________________________ The New Westside Buyer Profile Today’s buyers are more intentional and value-driven than they were a few years ago. They’re evaluating neighborhoods not only on price, but on how well the area supports the way they want to live. Common priorities we see from today’s Westside buyers: Move-in ready homes with functional layouts and updated systems. Outdoor living potential, whether that means a yard, patio, or space for entertaining. Energy-efficient upgrades, from newer windows and insulation to solar and EV-ready garages. Proximity to schools, parks, transit, and services, especially for households that want to reduce commute and car time. Westside neighborhoods align well with these priorities, which is why demand has remained strong and competitive—particularly in Beverlywood, Castle Heights, and Cheviot Hills. ________________________________________ Long-Term Value and Market Stability Even when the broader Los Angeles market experiences ups and downs, the Westside has a history of holding its value. These neighborhoods benefit from: Consistently low inventory – There are only so many homes in these pockets, and people tend to stay for a long time. Steady appreciation over time, driven by location, schools, and lifestyle appeal. Deep community roots, with many residents invested in maintaining the character, safety, and livability of their blocks. Homes here are often purchased for the lifestyle — but kept for decades because of the balance they offer between convenience, comfort, and long-term equity. ________________________________________ Why Work with the Dan May Real Estate Team? Buying or selling on the Westside is about more than just price per square foot. It’s about understanding micro-neighborhoods, school boundaries, local traffic patterns, and where buyers are focusing their attention right now. The Dan May Real Estate Team brings: Hyper-local experience in Beverlywood, Castle Heights, Cheviot Hills, and surrounding areas. Strategic pricing and preparation tailored to what Westside buyers are looking for today. Hands-on guidance through every step of the process, from prepping your home to negotiating the best possible terms. ________________________________________ Thinking About Your Next Move on the Westside? Whether you’re considering selling in the next year or just curious about what your home might be worth in the current market, we’re here to help you make informed decisions. Let’s talk about timing, strategy, and what’s possible for you in Beverlywood, Castle Heights, Cheviot Hills, or anywhere on the Westside.
By Dan May December 2, 2025
Whether you're a longtime resident or considering making a move to the Westside, Beverlywood, Castle Heights, and their surrounding neighborhoods offer a vibrant mix of charm, convenience, and community. Here's a closer look at what makes these areas stand out. 🏡 Beverlywood: A Hidden Gem with Timeless Appeal Beverlywood is known for its quiet, tree-lined streets, traditional architecture, and strong sense of community. Local favorites include: • Circle Park: A private green space exclusive to residents — a unique perk that adds to the area’s charm. • Beverlywood Bakery: An institution for over 70 years, serving fresh pastries and Jewish deli classics. • Proximity to Pico-Robertson's vibrant shopping and dining gives Beverlywood walkable appeal, yet it retains a tucked-away feel. 🏙️ Castle Heights: Small-Town Feel with Big City Access Castle Heights blends old LA character with an affordable entry into the Westside market. Why locals love it: • Cheviot Hills Park & Recreation Center: Great for sports, playgrounds, and family events. • Castle Heights Elementary School: Highly regarded and a major draw for families. • Walkability to Metro's Expo Line offers easy commutes to Downtown LA or Santa Monica. 🌆 Nearby Neighborhood Highlights Cheviot Hills : Offers luxury homes, golf course views, and a peaceful vibe just minutes from the city. Crestview & La Cienega Heights: These up-and-coming pockets are gaining popularity for their central location, charming bungalows, and growing dining scene. Faircrest Heights & Reynier Village: Known for their architectural variety and strong community associations, they offer an appealing alternative to more high-profile areas. ________________________________________ Why the Dan May Real Estate Team? With deep roots in these communities, we don’t just sell homes — we help clients find their place in neighborhoods we know and love. Whether you're buying, selling, or just exploring, we’re here with insight, strategy, and local expertise. Thinking of making a move? Let’s talk about what’s possible in Beverlywood, Castle Heights, or anywhere on the Westside. Dan May Dan May Real Estate Team REALTOR®, Broker Associate Mobile: (310) 739-8647 dan@danmayrealestateteam.com LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-may-a161a55/ Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/danmayrealestateteam/ Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/DanMayRealEstate
By KCM Crew December 1, 2025
Want to know how to find the best deal possible in today’s housing market? 
By KCM Crew November 27, 2025
Homebuyers are weighing their options right now, and they certainly have a lot on their minds. 
By KCM Crew November 26, 2025
Renting can feel much less expensive and much simpler than buying a home, especially right now.
By KCM Crew November 24, 2025
When the holidays roll around, travel plans, family gatherings, and all the chaos of the season may make you think it’s better to pull your listing off the market or to wait until 2026 to sell your house. But here’s the thing.
By KCM Crew November 20, 2025
Homebuyers are watching the economy closely, and for good reason.
By KCM Crew November 19, 2025
Here’s something you should know before you sell your house. The homeowners who win in today’s market aren’t the ones waiting it out or stepping back.
By KCM Crew November 17, 2025
After several years of high mortgage rates and hesitation from buyers, momentum is quietly building beneath the surface of the housing market.
More Posts