3 Reasons We’re Definitely Not in a Housing Bubble
Dan May • February 9, 2021
3 Reasons We’re Definitely Not in a Housing Bubble
Home values appreciated by about ten percent in 2020, and they’re forecast to appreciate by about five percent this year. This has some voicing concern that we may be in another housing bubble like the one we experienced a little over a decade ago. Here are three reasons why this market is totally different.
1. This time, housing supply is extremely limited
The price of any market item is determined by supply and demand. If supply is high and demand is low, prices normally decrease. If supply is low and demand is high, prices naturally increase.
In real estate, supply and demand are measured in “months’ supply of inventory,” which is based on the number of current homes for sale compared to the number of buyers in the market. The normal months’ supply of inventory for the market is about 6 months. Anything above that defines a buyers’ market, indicating prices will soften. Anything below that defines a sellers’ market
in which prices normally appreciate.
Between 2006 and 2008, the months’ supply of inventory increased from just over 5 months to
11 months. The months’ supply was over 7 months in twenty-seven of those thirty-six months, yet home values continued to rise.
Months’ inventory has been under 5 months for the last 3 years, under 4 for thirteen of the last fourteen months, under 3 for the last six months, and currently stands at 1.9 months – a historic low.
Remember, if supply is low and demand is high, prices naturally increase.
2. This time, housing demand is real
During the housing boom in the mid-2000s, there was what Robert Schiller, a fellow at the Yale School of Management’s International Center for Finance, called “irrational exuberance.” The definition
of the term is, “unfounded market optimism that lacks a real foundation of fundamental valuation, but instead rests on psychological factors.” Without considering historic market trends, people got caught up in the frenzy and bought houses based on an unrealistic belief that housing values would continue to escalate.
The mortgage industry fed into this craziness by making mortgage money available to just about anyone, as shown in the Mortgage Credit Availability Index
(MCAI) published by the Mortgage Bankers Association. The higher the index, the easier it is to get a mortgage; the lower the index, the more difficult it is to obtain one. Prior to the housing boom, the index stood just below 400. In 2006, the index hit an all-time high of over 868. Again, just about anyone could get a mortgage. Today, the index stands at 122.5, which is well below even the pre-boom level.
In the current real estate market, demand is real, not fabricated. Millennials, the largest generation in the country, have come of age to marry and have children, which are two major drivers for homeownership. The health crisis is also challenging every household to redefine the meaning of “home” and to re-evaluate whether their current home meets that new definition. This desire to own, coupled with historically low mortgage rates, makes purchasing a home today a strong, sound financial decision. Therefore, today’s demand is very real.
Remember, if supply is low and demand is high, prices naturally increase.
3. This time, households have plenty of equity
Again, during the housing boom, it wasn’t just purchasers who got caught up in the frenzy. Existing homeowners started using their homes like ATM machines. There was a wave of cash-out refinances, which enabled homeowners to leverage the equity in their homes. From 2005 through 2007, Americans pulled out $824 billion dollars in equity. That left many homeowners with little or no equity in their homes at a critical time. As prices began to drop, some homeowners found themselves in a negative equity situation where the mortgage was higher than the value of their home. Many defaulted on their payments, which led to an avalanche of foreclosures. Today, the banks and the American people have shown they learned a valuable lesson from the housing crisis a little over a decade ago. Cash-out refinance volume over the last three years was less than a third of what it was compared to the 3 years leading up to the crash.
This conservative approach has created levels of equity never seen before. According to
Census Bureau data, over
38% of owner-occupied housing units are owned ‘free and clear’ (without any mortgage). Also, ATTOM Data Solutions
just released their fourth quarter 2020 U.S. Home Equity Report, which revealed:
“17.8 million residential properties in the United States were considered equity-rich, meaning that the combined estimated amount of loans secured by those properties was 50 percent or less of their estimated market value…The count of equity-rich properties in the fourth quarter of 2020 represented 30.2 percent, or about one in three, of the 59 million mortgaged homes in the United States.”
If we combine the 38% of homes that are owned free and clear with the 18.7% of all homes that have at least 50% equity (30.2% of the remaining 62% with a mortgage), we realize that 56.7% of all homes in this country have a minimum of 50% equity. That’s significantly better than the equity situation in 2008.
Bottom Line
This time, housing supply is at a historic low. Demand is real and rightly motivated. Even if there were to be a drop in prices, homeowners have enough equity to be able to weather a dip in home values.
This is nothing like 2008. In fact, it’s the exact opposite.
Whether you’re a long-time Angeleno or planning your next move, the Westside continues to stand out as one of the most desirable regions in Los Angeles. Anchored by Beverlywood, Castle Heights, Cheviot Hills, and nearby pockets, this area offers a rare combination of convenience, community, and long-term value that today’s buyers are actively seeking. Here’s a closer look at why so many people are rediscovering these neighborhoods. ________________________________________ The Rise of “15-Minute LA” Living More than ever, homeowners want to spend less time in the car and more time actually enjoying where they live. That’s why the idea of a “15-minute neighborhood” has become so attractive — places where daily essentials are just a short drive or walk away. Westside neighborhoods like Beverlywood, Castle Heights, and Cheviot Hills deliver precisely that. What makes these areas so practical for everyday life: Fast access to major corridors like the 10 and 405 freeways, Robertson, Pico, and Venice Blvd. Proximity to job hubs in Culver City’s growing tech and media district, Century City, and West LA. Walkability to essentials, including cafés, markets, parks, and small businesses. Access to well-regarded schools, which remains a key driver for long-term demand and stability. What used to feel like quiet, tucked-away residential pockets now function as some of the most strategically located neighborhoods in the city. ________________________________________ Local Spots That Give the Westside Its Character The Westside isn’t just about convenience — it’s about the lifestyle that comes with it. Residents love the everyday places that help each neighborhood feel like a community, not just a collection of streets. A few favorites that locals talk about: Blueys Market & Café (Pico) – Known for its Australian-style breakfast, fresh pastries, and a relaxed, neighborhood vibe. Palm Grove Social (Carthay Square) – A community café that doubles as a workspace and social hub for remote professionals. Cheviot Hills Recreation Center – Tennis courts, ball fields, walking paths, and open green space make it a go-to spot for families and active lifestyles. Platform LA & Helms Bakery District (Culver City) – Design-forward shops, showrooms, and destination dining that bring a modern edge to the historic Westside. These aren’t just “nice extras” — they’re part of what keeps these communities in demand, even as other parts of the city fluctuate. ________________________________________ The New Westside Buyer Profile Today’s buyers are more intentional and value-driven than they were a few years ago. They’re evaluating neighborhoods not only on price, but on how well the area supports the way they want to live. Common priorities we see from today’s Westside buyers: Move-in ready homes with functional layouts and updated systems. Outdoor living potential, whether that means a yard, patio, or space for entertaining. Energy-efficient upgrades, from newer windows and insulation to solar and EV-ready garages. Proximity to schools, parks, transit, and services, especially for households that want to reduce commute and car time. Westside neighborhoods align well with these priorities, which is why demand has remained strong and competitive—particularly in Beverlywood, Castle Heights, and Cheviot Hills. ________________________________________ Long-Term Value and Market Stability Even when the broader Los Angeles market experiences ups and downs, the Westside has a history of holding its value. These neighborhoods benefit from: Consistently low inventory – There are only so many homes in these pockets, and people tend to stay for a long time. Steady appreciation over time, driven by location, schools, and lifestyle appeal. Deep community roots, with many residents invested in maintaining the character, safety, and livability of their blocks. Homes here are often purchased for the lifestyle — but kept for decades because of the balance they offer between convenience, comfort, and long-term equity. ________________________________________ Why Work with the Dan May Real Estate Team? Buying or selling on the Westside is about more than just price per square foot. It’s about understanding micro-neighborhoods, school boundaries, local traffic patterns, and where buyers are focusing their attention right now. The Dan May Real Estate Team brings: Hyper-local experience in Beverlywood, Castle Heights, Cheviot Hills, and surrounding areas. Strategic pricing and preparation tailored to what Westside buyers are looking for today. Hands-on guidance through every step of the process, from prepping your home to negotiating the best possible terms. ________________________________________ Thinking About Your Next Move on the Westside? Whether you’re considering selling in the next year or just curious about what your home might be worth in the current market, we’re here to help you make informed decisions. Let’s talk about timing, strategy, and what’s possible for you in Beverlywood, Castle Heights, Cheviot Hills, or anywhere on the Westside.
Whether you're a longtime resident or considering making a move to the Westside, Beverlywood, Castle Heights, and their surrounding neighborhoods offer a vibrant mix of charm, convenience, and community. Here's a closer look at what makes these areas stand out. 🏡 Beverlywood: A Hidden Gem with Timeless Appeal Beverlywood is known for its quiet, tree-lined streets, traditional architecture, and strong sense of community. Local favorites include: • Circle Park: A private green space exclusive to residents — a unique perk that adds to the area’s charm. • Beverlywood Bakery: An institution for over 70 years, serving fresh pastries and Jewish deli classics. • Proximity to Pico-Robertson's vibrant shopping and dining gives Beverlywood walkable appeal, yet it retains a tucked-away feel. 🏙️ Castle Heights: Small-Town Feel with Big City Access Castle Heights blends old LA character with an affordable entry into the Westside market. Why locals love it: • Cheviot Hills Park & Recreation Center: Great for sports, playgrounds, and family events. • Castle Heights Elementary School: Highly regarded and a major draw for families. • Walkability to Metro's Expo Line offers easy commutes to Downtown LA or Santa Monica. 🌆 Nearby Neighborhood Highlights Cheviot Hills : Offers luxury homes, golf course views, and a peaceful vibe just minutes from the city. Crestview & La Cienega Heights: These up-and-coming pockets are gaining popularity for their central location, charming bungalows, and growing dining scene. Faircrest Heights & Reynier Village: Known for their architectural variety and strong community associations, they offer an appealing alternative to more high-profile areas. ________________________________________ Why the Dan May Real Estate Team? With deep roots in these communities, we don’t just sell homes — we help clients find their place in neighborhoods we know and love. Whether you're buying, selling, or just exploring, we’re here with insight, strategy, and local expertise. Thinking of making a move? Let’s talk about what’s possible in Beverlywood, Castle Heights, or anywhere on the Westside. Dan May Dan May Real Estate Team REALTOR®, Broker Associate Mobile: (310) 739-8647 dan@danmayrealestateteam.com LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-may-a161a55/ Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/danmayrealestateteam/ Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/DanMayRealEstate
Want to know how to find the best deal possible in today’s housing market?
Homebuyers are weighing their options right now, and they certainly have a lot on their minds.
Renting can feel much less expensive and much simpler than buying a home, especially right now.
When the holidays roll around, travel plans, family gatherings, and all the chaos of the season may make you think it’s better to pull your listing off the market or to wait until 2026 to sell your house. But here’s the thing.
Homebuyers are watching the economy closely, and for good reason.
Here’s something you should know before you sell your house. The homeowners who win in today’s market aren’t the ones waiting it out or stepping back.
After several years of high mortgage rates and hesitation from buyers, momentum is quietly building beneath the surface of the housing market.
