Latest Unemployment Report: Great News…for the Most Part

Dan May • Jul 08, 2020

Latest Unemployment Report: Great News…for the Most Part

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their latest Employment Situation Summary last Thursday, and it again beat analysts’ expectations in a big way. The consensus was for 3,074,000 jobs to be added in June. The report revealed that 4,800,000 jobs were added. The unemployment rate fell to 11.1% from 13.3% last month. Again, excellent news as the unemployment rate fell for the second consecutive month. However, there’s still a long way to go before the economy fully recovers as 17.8 million Americans remain unemployed.
Here are two interesting insights on the report:

What about a supposed misclassification?

The BLS addressed this at length in a blog post last week, and concluded by saying:

“Regardless of the assumptions we might make about misclassification, the trend in the unemployment rate over the period in question is the same; the rate increased in March & April and eased in May.”

They specifically noted the issue in the latest report by explaining that if they adjusted the rate for the potential miscalculation, it would increase from 11.1% to 12.1% (which is lower than the adjusted rate of 16.4% last month). They went on to say:

“However, this represents the upper bound of our estimate of misclassification and probably overstates the size of the misclassification error.”

Does the shutdown of parts of the economy skew the unemployment numbers?

Because the uniqueness of 2020 impacts the employment situation in so many ways, each jobs report is now examined with a microscope to make sure the headlines generated by the report accurately convey what’s happening in the job market.
One such analysis is done by Jed Kolko, Chief Economist at Indeed. He believes the extraordinary number of people in the “temporary” unemployed category confuses the broader issue of how many people have permanently lost their job. He adjusts for this when calculating his “core unemployment rate” (which subtracts temporary layoffs and adds unemployed who didn’t search for a job recently).
The bad news is that his analysis reveals that the number of permanently unemployed is still rising (from 4.6% in April to 5.9% last month). The good news, however, is when you use his methodology to look back at the Great Recession, today’s “core unemployment rate” is significantly lower (5.9% versus 10.5% in April 2010).

Bottom Line

Last week’s jobs report was much better than most expected. However, we should remain cautious in our optimism. As the Wall Street Journal explained in their analysis of the jobs report:

“U.S. job growth surged last month, underscoring the economy’s capacity for a quick rebound if businesses continue to reopen and consumers regain confidence. A recent coronavirus spike, however, could undermine trends captured in the latest jobs report.”

By Dan May 08 May, 2024
This Red Day, KW will be honoring our Veterans. Your generous donation will help us provide a nutritious meal to 500 deserving men and women. These brave vets have served our country, and now it's our turn to serve them. Any amount of donation can make a big difference. Please use QR code to donate. here Thursday May 9th 11am-1pm Main parking lot at The VA Wilshire Federal Building 11000 Wilshire Blvd, Los Angeles, CA 90024
By Dan May 08 May, 2024
An area homeowner contacted me recently requesting advice on which paid service I recommend for identifying potential real estate fraud activity on their Beverlywood area single family residence.. My response was, “NONE! IT’S A SCAM. Your tax dollars enable you receive this important information for FREE.” Here is an explanation of how the service works. Below you will find a link to the website to register. The Los Angeles County Assessor’s e-Notification service gives homeowners the opportunity to register their e-mail to be alerted whenever a foreclosure, transfer of title, or mortgage is recorded on their property with the Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk. This notification allows property owners a means to identify potential real estate fraud activity, such as a fraudulently recorded lien or deed. What is the Property Owner e-Notification Alert? Currently, the Registrar-Recorder will, within 30-days, mail a copy of a Grant Deed, Quit Claim Deed, Deed of Trust, or, within 5-days, mail a copy of a Notice of Default, or Notice of Sale to the property owner upon its recording. Now, homeowners can also opt-in for e-mail notifications. Once a homeowner registers, they will be sent an e-mail of any activity on their property within 48-hours. How does a homeowner enroll in the Property Owner e-Notification? To enroll in Property Owner e-Notification Alert, the homeowner simply creates a profile on the Los Angeles County Assessor’s portal website at https://assessor.lacounty.gov/news-information/ enotification, click on Register Today, fill in the information, check the box for Opt-In for AIN/Recorded Document e-mail notification and click submit. Once they have created an account, log in to the portal and select “Property Owner e-Notification Alerts” on the landing page. Enter the AIN (Assessor Identification Number) on the “Property Owner e-Notification Registration” page and select “Add.” Once added, they will begin to receive electronic notifications when a document is recorded with their linked AIN. A homeowner may repeat this step to register any other LA County properties on their account. There is no limit and there are no fees. Why does the LA County Assessor offer E-Notification? The service allows property owners the opportunity to seek free, legitimate assistance and helps them avoid falling victim to real estate scams. Also, if a property owner suspects erroneous or fraudulent activity, they can report it to the Department of Consumer and Business Affairs at (800) 593-8222 , online at dcba.lacounty.gov , or by e-mail at homehelp@dcba.lacounty.gov . Dan May is among the leading real estate professionals in Los Angeles County. He can be reached at (310)739-8647 and dan@danmayrealestateteam.com Give Dan a call to confidentially discuss your options, your home’s value and/or for a list of local vendors.
By Dan May 01 May, 2024
Market Snapshot: 16 Single Family homes sold within the Beverlywood HOA and Adjacent boundaries (area 9 in the MLS) during the entire month of April 2024 compared to 15 in March and 9 in February. The 16 single family homes that sold in April were on the market for an average of 23 days and sold for an average of $1026.61 per sq. ft. of living space and 97.45% of the OLP (Original List Price). As of May 1st there are currently 22 Single Family homes for sale within the entire Beverlywood HOA and adjacent boundaries, down from 23 the prior month and 27 in February. The 22 single family homes currently For Sale have been on the market for an average of 59 days at a average price of $2,310,272 and $1122.87 per sq. ft. There are currently 15 Single Family homes “under contract” which means in escrow, likely closing soon. I study the market every day. Call Dan May today for local knowledge, flexible commission and proven results at (310)739-8647 .
By Dan May 01 Apr, 2024
Market Snapshot: 15 Single Family homes sold within the Beverlywood HOA and Adjacent boundaries (area 9 in the MLS) during the entire month of March 2024 compared to 9 in February, a 67% increase. The 15 single family homes that sold in March were on the market for an average of 36 days and sold for an average of $950.34 per sq. ft. of living space and 98.81% of the OLP (Original List Price). As of April 1st there are currently 23 Single Family homes for sale within the entire Beverlywood HOA and adjacent boundaries, down from 27 the prior month. The 23 single family homes currently For Sale have been on the market for a median of 39 days at a median price of $1,995,000 and $1024 per sq. ft. There are currently 21 Single Family homes “under contract” which means in escrow, likely closing soon. Analysis: With just 23 homes for sale and 15 sold last month alone, that calculates to less than 2 months supply of homes. Fewer than 6 months supply is considered a SELLER’s market. The unofficial start of the Residential Selling Season is the day after the April 15th Income Tax Deadline, April 16th. Contact area specialist Dan May today for a confidential, no obligation consultation at (310)739-8647 , you will be glad you did!
By Dan May 25 Aug, 2023
By Dan May 01 Aug, 2023
By Dan May 31 Mar, 2023
By Dan May 31 Mar, 2023
By Dan May 31 Mar, 2023
By Dan May 07 Dec, 2022
Each year, homeowners planning to make a move are faced with a decision: sell their house during the holidays or wait. And others who have already listed their homes may think about removing their listings and waiting until the new year to go back on the market.
More Posts
Share by: